EDITION
Three themes. Three truths. The signals the market hasn't priced yet. Read the chokepoints. Follow the light.
AI: THE SUPPLY CHAIN OF GOD
- 01Uranium spot price action and long-term contract renewals
- 02Copper treatment charges (TCs) declining = supply tightness
- 03China rare earth export policy shifts
- 04Data center PUE metrics trending lower = cooling demand accelerating
- 05Hyperscaler capex guidance on earnings calls
Pure-play US uranium producer with permitted ISR mining projects. Benefits from nuclear renaissance + national security premium (domestic supply). Low-cost extraction method. Positioned to fill the gap as Russia-dominated supply gets displaced.
ISR mining yields are uncertain. Company has historically dilutive financing. If AI capex slows, nuclear timelines extend and spot price could collapse. Also: UEC hasn't consistently produced profits.
Unique dual-asset play: US uranium producer AND only Western rare earth processor (monazite sand). Vertically integrated. Both themes in one ticker. Just resumed production at White Mesa mill. If China restricts REE exports further, UUUU is the direct beneficiary.
Rare earth processing economics are marginal at current volumes. Dual-focus means management attention is split. Heavy reliance on government subsidies and contracts. Not yet consistently profitable.
Micro nuclear reactor developer targeting portable power for data centers, military, remote sites. SMR space is the speculative frontier of nuclear — if any company gets first commercial deployment, it 5-10xs. NNE is early stage but has DOE engagement.
Pre-revenue. SMR regulatory path is years away. Competing against larger, more capitalized players (Oklo, NuScale). Massive dilution risk. Could go to zero if commercialization timeline extends.
Only US rare earth mining + processing company at scale. Mountain Pass mine producing NdPr for magnets. Apple deal for recycled rare earths. Vertical integration underway. Direct beneficiary of China export restrictions. $18.64 52w low to current $67 = already moved 3x but still below ATH.
Stock already had a massive run. Processing yields still below target. Reliant on single mine. If China floods the market to crush US competitors (they've done it before), MP could get hurt. Apple deal is small volume.
Dominant data center power and cooling infrastructure provider. Liquid cooling solutions for high-density AI racks. Direct play on the power bottleneck — data centers need Vertiv equipment to function. 28% stock jump in recent month. $99 52w low → $340 now = 3.4x already.
Already had massive run. Valuation stretched. Competitors entering liquid cooling market. If hyperscalers slow capex, Vertiv's pipeline gets cut. 130B MCap — no longer a small-cap asymmetric play.
Helping Google build custom AI silicon (TPUs). Custom ASICs are the next wave — hyperscalers want their own chips. Marvell's interconnect and networking IP is essential for AI clusters. 67% stock surge in April on Google partnership news. Still below ATH.
Revenue concentration risk — heavily dependent on few hyperscaler contracts. Custom silicon could commoditize. MRVL already had massive run from $58. Competing with Broadcom which has deeper pockets. MCap $149B — limited upside from here.
- †If AI capex slows — uranium/copper juniors get destroyed. The leverage cuts both ways.
- †The market may overbuild data centers creating an infrastructure glut within 3 years
- †Copper substitution (aluminum) could partially offset deficit
CONFLICT: THE AGE OF DISORDER
- 01European defense procurement announcements
- 02US tariff list expansions and retaliation timelines
- 03Shadow fleet vessel tracking patterns
- 04Taiwan semiconductor contingency statements
- 05Iran oil export volumes
Monopoly-like aerospace/defense component supplier. Proprietary parts with no substitutes. Pricing power is extreme — can raise prices 5-10x on sole-source parts. European rearmament means MORE aircraft, MORE parts, MORE aftermarket revenue. Just acquired Stellant Systems (RF tech) for defense electronics.
Already a $68B company — not a small-cap asymmetric play. Regulatory risk on sole-source pricing (DoD audits). Stock at $1215/share — expensive per share. If defense spending slows or gets redirected, aftermarket is still strong but new-build could lag.
Defense electronics and communication systems — the 'brain' of modern military. Command, control, communications, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance. European rearmament needs C4ISR systems, not just tanks. LHX is the integrator. Below 52w high by 20%.
Integration of L3 and Harris still messy — margins below target. Defense procurement cycles are slow. Competition from Lockheed and Raytheon on large programs. $56B MCap — moderate upside from here.
Tariffs + reshoring = more US construction and manufacturing facilities being built. CAT is the picks-and-shovels of the physical economy. Every new factory, every data center, every onshored production line needs CAT equipment. Infrastructure bills also feed directly. $897 current = near ATH.
Near all-time highs — limited upside from entry here. Cyclical — if economy slows, CAT gets hit. Revenue already China-concentrated — tariffs could hurt more than help short-term. Not a 30-1000% play — it's a 15-25% play.
- †Markets may be overpricing Taiwan invasion risk — if it doesn't happen, chip stocks rip
- †European defense stocks already pricing perfection — look at component suppliers instead
- †Tariffs could accelerate US manufacturing more than expected
DE-DOLLARIZATION: THE EXODUS FROM BABEL
- 01Weekly central bank gold reserve changes
- 02CIPS transaction volume growth
- 03Treasury auction foreign participation
- 04Gold lease rates and GOFO spreads
- 05BRICS+ summit statements
Basket of small-cap gold miners — leveraged play on gold price without single-company risk. If gold continues rising on CB buying, juniors amplify the move 2-3x. GDXJ went from $57 to $157 in the last year = 2.75x. Below ATH by 20%. Still room to run if de-dollarization accelerates.
ETF dilutes the best picks with weak operators. Expense ratio eats returns. Gold at ATH means the easy money may be done. If gold corrects 15%, juniors could drop 30-40%. GDXJ contains some companies that could go bankrupt.
Gold and silver streaming company — provides upfront capital to miners in exchange for future metal at fixed low prices. Higher margins than miners (80%+ gross). No mining risk. Benefits from both gold AND silver rising. Silver has dual demand (industrial + monetary). $5.3B invested in streaming portfolio.
Streaming model depends on counterparties producing. If mines fail, streams become worthless. Already $63B MCap — not a small-cap play. Legal disputes with CRA (Canada tax) create uncertainty. Limited upside vs pure juniors.
Silver has dual demand: industrial (electronics, solar, AI infrastructure) AND monetary (store of value). The de-dollarization theme benefits both gold AND silver. Silver is more volatile = more upside if the thesis plays out. SLV from $29 to $110 in last year = 3.8x. Below ATH by 33%. Physical silver supply is ALSO constrained.
ETF doesn't capture miner leverage. Silver is more volatile on downside too — if gold corrects, silver drops harder. Industrial demand could slow if economy contracts. SLV has storage costs that eat into returns.
- †USD still 58%+ of reserves. The infrastructure gap is massive.
- †Gold at ATHs may mean easy money is done — juniors offer leverage but existential risk
- †If US yields stay high, dollar strength could crush de-dollarization trade short-term